January 2025

For a long time, the dynamic increase in global goods exports was seen as an indicator of increasing globalisation. However, it is often overlooked that over the past 40 years, growth rates in international service provision have been higher than in international trade in goods. While the trade in goods increased approximately fivefold between 1980 and 2005 and again by a factor of 2.4 between 2006 and 2022, the international provision of services recorded slightly higher growth rates in both periods: by a factor of 6.5 from 1980 to 2005 and by a factor of 2.6 from 2006 to 2022. The USA is the world's largest exporter of services, followed by the United Kingdom, China and Germany. The top nine service exporting countries together provided 53.7 percent of the global volume of services in 2022.

One segment of service activities involves knowledge-intensive business services, in which the generation or use of knowledge is at the centre of value creation. These services were first scientifically analysed in the 1990s. According to an estimate by the German Economic Institute, the USA dominates this segment globally. Germany, on the other hand, is strong in business-oriented services. As with goods, the following applies: Germany knows B2B. This strength should be emphasised and expanded. After all, Germany needs a new business model, not least because of permanently higher energy prices and the loss of export markets for goods due to political developments. The export of highly qualified services could increasingly complement the export of goods.

Knowledge-intensive business service providers usually consume little energy, do not have a large stock of fixed assets and often do not conduct research in a traditional sense. This means that three aspects of the political discussion on strengthening the international competitiveness of German companies do not apply to knowledge-intensive business service providers.

To leverage the potential for growth in the export of knowledge-intensive business services, a different approach must be taken – and further analysis is likely needed to ensure that policy measures are targeted accurately. The following could be initial starting points:

• Why do, on average, more knowledge-intensive business start-ups give up in the first two years after founding than start-ups in all other sectors? 
• According to company surveys, service companies have above-average difficulties in accessing capital. Does this also apply to knowledge-intensive business service companies in particular? 
• Are the existing statistical foundations sufficient to examine the export and import of services just as precisely as for goods?