March 2025

In the world of desk-based research, written sources are the lifeblood of operations. Without conducting first-hand research (surveys, interviews, etc.) a researcher is dependent upon written sources in order to discover anything about a given topic. Hence, a researcher’s output can only be good if they know how to identify quality sources.

But which sources to trust? Sure, true misinformation requires skills to detect, but today the flooding of data of low- and medium-quality sources is even more of a hurdle to establishing solid facts. While these sources may not put forward explicitly false information, they drown out useful data and, perhaps more importantly, they do not offer information on how their data was gathered, i.e. their methodology.

Looking at market forecasts, their methodology is the make-or-break point. As the future is uncertain, the results are never guaranteed. However, diving into the detailed methodology allows an experienced researcher to accurately compare sources and evaluate their findings correctly. 

The differences between high-quality and inadequate sources are easily highlighted. Let’s pick an example: the market growth of transition metals, i.e. metals that are required if the world is expected to reduce its GHG emissions.

A quick search into the market growth of transition metals results in several different suppliers of market studies, all of which more or less state the same positive growth rate and offer commonplace phrasing that can theoretically apply to any industry. These companies also hide their methodology and authors behind a paywall, making it hard to accurately assess the findings, even when the summarised results are published for free. Are these findings educated guesses, pure speculation or, even worse, does the company have an inherent interest in presenting a sector as financially viable? 

The same search also yields a working paper from the IMF on transition metals. The IMF paper offers several advantages when compared to the previously described sources.

• The IMF is an internationally recognised organisation that is not dependent upon financing from industries or individual companies.
• Economists at the IMF are considered some of the world’s best. They are committed to a science-based approach, more likely resulting in valid findings.
• Most importantly, the methodology, sources and discussion on source material are all included in the IMF report, allowing us to verify their material and offering the ability to pursue the material deeper. 

If a customer tasks us with producing a valid and transparent market analysis, our researchers’ first job is to identify solid sources. One criterium is how this source gathered the information. Without transparent disclosure, we will assume their results as a simple expression of an opinion and value it accordingly.